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On Sino-US Trade Balance
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关于中美贸易平衡问题
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【法宝引证码】
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| | 发展中美经贸关系符合两国人民的根本利益。中美建交以来，两国经济贸易关系发展迅速，呈现出比较强的互补性和互利性，也不时出现一些摩擦和分歧。当前，美国方面所过分强调甚至渲染的中美贸易平衡问题，已经影响两国经贸关系的健康发展，也引起有关国家和地区的关注。基于发展中美关系和推动两国贸易的愿望，我们认为有必要就这一问题阐述中国政府的立场和观点。
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I.Soaring Trade Between China and the United States
Developing Sino-US economic and trade relations serves the fundamental interests of both peoples. Following the establishment of diplo"imatic relations between the People's Republic of China and the United States, bilateral economic and trade ties have grown fast, featuring complement and mutual benefit. Occasionally, however, frictions and differences took place. At present, the issue of bilateral trade balance much too stressed and even exaggerated by the United States has hindered the healthy development of economic and trade relations between the two countries. It has also caused concerns among relevant countries and regions. In our bid to develop Sino-US relations and promote bilateral trade, we think it necessary to make clear the position and viewpoints of the Chinese Government on the issue.
In January 1979, the People's Republic of China and the United States established formal diplomatic relations. Six months later, the governments of the two countries signed the ``Agreement on Trade Relations Between the People's Republic of China and the United States of America' granting each other the most-favoured-nation trading status. Since then, Sino-US trade and economic relations entered a period of fast growth. According to Chinese statistics, Sino-US trade volume was 2.45 billion US dollars in 1979 but rocketed to 42.84 billion US dollars in 1996, with an accumulative volume of 260.6 billion US dollars over the past 18 years. The United States became China's third largest trade partner in 1979, and rose to the second place in 1996. According to US statistics, bilateral trade was 2.37 billion US dollars in 1979 and topped 63.5 billion US dollars in 1996, totalling 376 billion US dollars in the past 18 years. Among trade partners of the United States, China ranked the 24th in 1980 and claimed the fifth place in 1995. Despite statistical discrepancies, trade figures of the two sides both suggested an average annual bilateral trade growth rate of more than 18% over the last 18 years. This has been the mainstream in the development of Sino-US economic and trade relations.
Chinese statistics indicate that, in 1996, US products accounted for 11.6% of China's total imports, while US statistics show 5.42% of its imports last year came from China. The United States is one of the fastest growing markets for Chinese exports while China is also one of the fastest growing markets for US exports. Both countries' statistics suggest that between 1990 and 1996, US exports to China grew by more than 16% a year on average, far exceeding the overall US export growth in the period. China is one of its trade partners with which the United States scored the highest export growth. This is mainly attributable to the marked differences in the two countries' resources, economic structures, industrial setup and consumption levels, and to the fact that their economies can be complementary to each other. China is a developing country with low labour costs, but suffers from capital constraint and relatively under-developed scientific and technological development. The United States is a developed country with abundant capital and highly advanced technologies, but suffers from high labour costs. China mainly sells to the United States labour-intensive products such as textiles, garments, shoes, toys, electric home appliances and luggage. The United States mainly sells to China capital- and technology-intensive products such as aircraft, power generation equipment, machinery, electronics, telecommunications equipment and chemical machinery, as well as agricultural products including grain and cotton. So complementary and mutually beneficial is the structure of their exchanges of goods that it has greatly pushed the development of bilateral trade.
| | 一、迅速发展的中美贸易
1979年1月，中美两国正式建立外交关系。同年7月，两国政府签订《中美贸易关系协定》，相互给予最惠国待遇。中美经济贸易从此进入迅速发展时期。据中国方面的统计，1979年中美贸易额为24.5亿美元，1996年达到428.4亿美元，18年累计2606亿美元；从1979年起，美国成为中国第三大贸易伙伴，1996年成为第二大贸易伙伴。据美国方面的统计，1979年双边贸易额为23.7亿美元，1996年达到635亿美元，18年累计3760亿美元；1980年中国是美国第二十四位贸易伙伴，1995年上升为第五位。尽管两国的统计数据不尽相同，但双方的贸易统计都表明，在过去18年中，两国贸易年均增长18%以上。这是中美经济贸易发展的主流。
1996年，按各自的统计，中国自美国的进口占中国进口总额的11.6%，美国自中国的进口占美国进口总额的5.42%。美国是中国出口增长最快的市场之一，中国也是美国出口增长最快的市场之一。从1990年至1996年，美国对华出口额，双方统计都是年均增长16%以上，大大高于同期美国出口增长速度，居美国对各国出口增长速度的前列。中美两国贸易迅速增长的根本原因，在于两国资源条件、经济结构、产业结构以及消费水平存在着较大差异，经济具有互补性。中国是发展中国家，劳动成本低，但资金短缺，科技相对落后。美国是经济发达国家，资本充足，科技发达，但劳动成本高。中国主要向美国出口纺织品、服装、鞋、玩具、家用电器和旅行箱包等劳动密集型产品。美国主要向中国出口飞机、动力设备、机械设备、电子器件、通讯设备和化工等资本技术密集型产品，以及粮食、棉花等农产品。贸易产品结构的互补性和互利性，有力地推动了两国贸易的发展。
中美两国贸易的持续增长对两国发展经济和增加就业发挥了积极作用。就美国而言，仅对华直接出口就提供30万个就业岗位，双边贸易至少为美国工业和服务业提供了上百万个工作岗位，且呈逐年增加之势。中国比较低廉的劳动成本，降低了鞋、服装、玩具等日常生活用品在美国市场的销售价格，有助于疏缓美国的通货膨胀，使广大消费者得到实际好处。世界银行1994年的分析报告指出，如果从中国以外的国家进口同样的商品，美国消费者每年需要增加140亿美元的支出。就中国而言，数百万工人从事对美出口的加工组装业，促进了中国沿海地区的经济发展。中国从美国进口一些技术相对先进的产品，也有利于现代化建设。
中美贸易方式有两个显著的特点：一是以转口贸易为主，即无论中国对美国出口，还是美国对中国出口，大量货物都是经过以香港地区为主的第三方转口的；二是以加工贸易为主，即中国对美国出口的产品绝大部分为加工产品，中国进口原材料和零部件、初加工件，加工后再出口。以转口和加工为主的贸易方式，促进了两国贸易数量的迅速增长，同时也形成了两国贸易统计与贸易实况之间的较大偏离。
除进出口贸易往来外，美国对华投资也有很大发展。截止1996年底，美国在华投资的项目数为22240个，协议投资额为351.7亿美元，实际投资额142.9亿美元。除香港、台湾地区之外，美国仅次于日本，居各国对华投资的第二位。同时，美国对华服务贸易也在迅速发展。
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II.Statistical Difference in Sino-US Trade Balance
In recent years, bilateral trade balance, particularly huge US trade deficit from its trade with China as claimed by the US side, has roused extensive attention. Statistics and analyses prove it true that Sino-US trade has been in favour of China in recent years, but it is obvious that the size of the US de cit has been largely exaggerated by the US side.
Statistics from the US side indicate that Sino-US trade had been in favour of the US side during the 1979-82 period, but the United States started suering from decit in 1983 and the gure amounted to 39.5 billion US dollars in 1996. Chinese statistics, however, indicate that China had suered from decit in the bilateral trade during the 14 years between 1979 and 1992. Surplus rst appeared in 1993 and the figure rose to 10.5 billion US dollars in 1996. Obviously, there exists remarkable difference between China and the United States in their estimation of bilateral trade balance situation (see Table 1).
Table 1 Sino-US Trade Statistics
(in billions of US dollars)
Chinese statisticsUS statistics
ChineseChineseBalanceUSUSBalance
exportsimportsexportsimports
199316.9710.696.288.7731.54-22.77
199421.4613.977.499.2938.78-29.49
199524.7116.128.5911.7545.56-33.81
199626.6916.1610.5311.9751.49-39.52
Data sources: Chinese Customs and US Department of Commerce
To diagnose the large difference in the bilateral trade statistics by China and the United States and the large US trade deficit against China under US statistics, the US side agreed to a proposal made by China in 1994 on establishing a bilateral trade statistics expert group under the Sino-US Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade to undertake special studies of the subject. US members in the group were composed of experts from the Census Bureau of the Department of Commerce of the United States, while Chinese members in the group were experts from the Ministry of Foreign Trade and Economic Co-operation and the General Administration of Customs. The experts from both sides completed the work report of the Trade Statistics Subgroup of the Trade and Investment Working Group of the Sino-US Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade on the basis of abundant facts after they spent more than one year comparing 1992 and 1993 statistical data from China, the United States and the Hong Kong region, processing several hundred thousand records, sorting out several hundred analysis tables. The report believed that the US statistics had over-estimated at least the following factors in producing the large trade deficit against China:
| | 二、关于中美贸易平衡的统计问题
近年来，双边贸易的平衡问题，特别是美国方面所说的对华贸易巨额逆差问题，引起人们的关注。统计分析表明，近年来美国对华贸易逆差是事实，但美国方面显然把逆差的程度严重地夸大了。
美国方面的统计显示，在中美贸易中，1979年至1982年美国为顺差，1983年开始出现逆差，1996年贸易逆差达到395亿美元。中国方面的统计则表明，在从1979年到1992年的14年里，中方一直为逆差，自1993年转为顺差，1996年顺差为105亿美元。显然，中美两国关于双边贸易平衡状况的统计存在着明显的差异(见表一)。
表一：中美双边贸易统计单位：亿美元
中方统计 美方统计
中国出口 中国进口 中国平衡 美国出口 美国进口 美国平衡
1993169.7106.9 62.8 87.7 315.4-227.7
1994214.6139.7 74.9 92.9 387.8-294.9
1995247.1161.2 85.9117.5 455.6-338.1
1996266.9161.6 105.3119.7 514.9-395.2
资料来源：中国海关、美国商务部
为了弄清楚中美两国贸易统计差异过大及美国贸易统计反映的对华贸易逆差过大的原因，1994年，美方同意中方倡仪，在中美商贸联委会下成立双边贸易统计小组，进行专题研究。美方成员由美国商务部普查局的专家组成，中方成员由中国外经贸部和海关总署的专家组成。双方专家经过一年多时间的努力，比较了中国、美国和香港地区1992年和1993年的贸易统计数据，处理了几十万条记录，整理了几百套分析表，根据翔实的数据形成了《中美商贸联委会贸易和投资工作组贸易统计小组工作报告》。报告认为，美方统计的对华贸易逆差至少在以下几个方面被高估了：
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First, the US import statistics has ignored entrepot trade and value added from entrepot trade to over-estimate its imports from China. A large part of Sino-US trade is conducted through entrepot trade via a third place. Under Chinese statistics, 60% of Chinese exports to the United States are conducted through entrepot trade via a third place, mainly the Hong Kong region. According to US information, only 20% of Chinese goods are directly shipped to the United States, while the remaining 80% get into the United States through a third place. It is obvious that the added value created at the third place after the goods have left China shall not be calculated as exports from China. The conclusion of the Trade Statistics Subgroup of the Trade and Investment Working Group of the Sino-US Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade was: The average rate of value-adding of Chinese exports to the United States via the Hong Kong region was 40.7% in the past two years, which was far above the re-export value-adding rate under general circumstances. The value adding rate of some of the major re-exported commodities, such as toys and knitwear, even exceeded 100%. Chinese mainland products acquired an added value of 5.23 billion US dollars in 1992 and 6.3 billion US dollars in 1993 at Hong Kong before they were re-exported to the United States. The US side, however, calculated the added value created in Hong Kong region's entrepot trade as imports from China, and thus greatly over-calculated its import value from China.
| | 第一，美方的进口统计，因忽视转口和转口增加值而高估了从中国的进口。中美两国贸易的很大一部分是经第三方转口的。据中方统计，中国对美出口的60%是经过以香港地区为主的第三方转口的。据美方资料分析，中国的货物只有20%直接运往美国，其余80%是通过第三方转口到美国的。货物离开中国后在第三方增加的价值，显然不应计算为中国的出口。中美商贸联委会贸易统计小组分析的结论是，这两年中国出口货物经香港转口到美国的平均增值率高达40.7%，远高于一般情况下的转口增值率。一些主要转口货物，如玩具和针织服装等，增值率甚至超过100%。1992年和1993年香港向美国转口中国内地产品的增加值分别为52.3亿美元和63亿美元。美方将香港转口增加值也统计成自中国的进口，从而大大高估了从中国的进口值。
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Secondly, the US statistics of its exports to China has been under-estimated by neglecting re-exports. According to analyses by experts of the Sino-US Joint Commission on Commerce and Trade, the amount of re-exports to China via the Hong Kong region included in the US statistics of its exports to China was only about a quarter of that included in Hong Kong's statistics. In 1992 and 1993 respectively, about 1.8 billion US dollars and 2.3 billion US dollars worth of US exports to China, through entrepot trade via Hong Kong, were not included in the US statistics of its exports to China.
| | 第二，美方的出口统计，因忽视转口而低估了对中国的出口。根据中美商贸联委会专家的分析，美国对中国的出口统计中，经香港对中国的转口只占香港方面统计的四分之一左右。1992年和1993年经香港转口的美国对中国出口额分别约有18亿美元和23亿美元未被计入美国对华出口总额中。
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Thirdly, the US method in determining the origin of goods also leads to the discrepancies in the statistics of the two sides. The judgment of the origin of ordinary imported goods is usually based on the declaration by importers. Goods determined as originating in China are recorded as imports from China, regardless of whether they are actually exports via a third place or whether the goods have acquired added value in that third place. Some imports which have been recorded by the United States as imports from China should, most probably, be recorded as imports from other third countries or regions. Experts of both sides acknowledged that further studies are needed on the issue of determination of origin.
．．．．．． | | 第三，美国确定货物原产地所采用的方法，导致双方统计上的差异。对一般进口货物原产地的判定，通常是根据进口商的申报。被判定原产地为中国的货物被记录为来自中国的进口，无论是否实际上由中间方出口，或者货物在中间方是否有增加值。某些被美国记录成自中国的进口，很有可能是应该记录为自其它中间方进口的。双方专家认识到，需要进一步对原产地的判定问题进行研究。
不考虑按原产地原则统计带来的误差，仅因忽视转口和转口增加值这一因素，美国1992年和1993年统计的对华贸易逆差分别被高估大约70亿美元和86亿美元，即美国当年公布的对华逆差平均被夸大了60%以上(见表二)。
表二：转口及香港转口增加值导致美方高估对华贸易逆差 单位：亿美元
1992 1993
美公布自华进口257.3315.4
香港转口增加值 -52.3-63
调整后美方进口 205 252.4
美公布对华出口74.2 87.7
经香港转口美方与香港统计差额1823
调整后美方出口 92.2 110.7
美公布对华逆差183.1227.7
调整后美方逆差 112.8141.7
资料来源：《中美商贸联委会贸易和投资工作组贸易统计小组工作报告》
此外，美国因出口统计不完全而低估了对中国的出口值。1996年12月5日，美国商务部普查局官员在美国《商业日报》上指出，由于出口不像进口那样能够通过征税为政府带来直接收入，所以美国出口统计可能漏掉了10%以上的记录。据此推算，1992年和1993年美国对华出口统计可能分别漏掉10亿美元以上。
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